While growth in most regions has slowed down, Vietnam’s economy is recovering strongly with GDP expanding by an average 6.84% during the 2016-2020 period, beating the set target and marking the highest figure in the past three five-year periods. The EVFTA and CPTPP could increase Vietnam’s GDP by 4.3% and 1.3% respectively by 2030. Such an impressive performance will lay a solid foundation for Vietnam to become a upper middle-income country by 2025. Growth projected at 7% Assessing the prospects of the Vietnamese economy for the 2021-2025 period, the National Centre for Socio-economic Information Forecast (NCIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment constructed two scenarios. In the first scenario, GDP growth is projected to average 7% per year, with inflation at between 3.5%-4.5%, while the ratio of capital to GDP is estimated at 31%, compared with 33.5% during the 2016-2020 period. Investment efficiency continues to improve, with the incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) reaching 6 on average. Labour productivity is also enhanced, growing by 6.3% per year. GDP per capita is expected to reach US$4,688, meaning Vietnam will join the rank of upper middle-income countries by 2025. In a more upbeat scenario, Vietnam’s GDP growth could average 7.5% per year… Read full this story
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